ΣΞ Conf in Seattle
Nov 3 – 6
I’m presenting a poster based on my thesis work with Dr. Alongi at the Sigma Xi Annual Meeting & Student Research Conference. The poster title is “Unfair Representation in the Electoral College: A Probabilistic Analysis.” Here’s the abstract:
The procedure that the United States uses to elect its President, via the Electoral College, is unfair. Many believe that the Electoral College over-represents voters in less populous states since it guarantees each state at least three electoral votes. This is incorrect! In fact, a probabilistic analysis shows that the Electoral College exhibits an inherent bias favoring voters in more populous states. Indeed, a voter in California is 3.4 times more likely to change the outcome of a Presidential election with her single vote than a voter in Montana. We assume that individual votes are random and independent. We use the Banzhaf measure of voting power, which calculates the change in the outcome expectations caused by knowing the voter’s vote. Thus, an individual voter *v*’s power is: E(candidate *A* wins | voter *v* voted for *A*) – E(candidate *A* wins). Intuitively, this is the chance that voter *v*’s vote will change the outcome of the election. We examine the possibility of making the Electoral College more equitable by changing the apportionment of the 538 electoral votes among the states. We prove that it is impossible for the Electoral College, or almost any federal weighted voting system, to endow each voter with exactly the same power. We identify an apportionment such that the powers of any two American voters differ by less than 24% (compared to the current 240%). In our new allocation, which appears to satisfy Constitutional requirements, even the least populous states all have a minimum of *four* Electoral votes.